Japan is gearing up for a pivotal House of Representatives election on the 27th, with Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Shingo Ishiba arriving at a campaign rally. The election is set to potentially disrupt the LDP’s grip on power, which has persisted for 15 years. If the party loses its majority, Ishiba may face internal accountability measures, putting his leadership at risk and possibly leading to the formation of a new coalition government. This scenario could trigger a significant reshuffle in Japanese politics, further complicating an already unstable geopolitical situation. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama has proposed expanding the ruling coalition to secure power, but the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People have reportedly rejected this overture.
According to reports from Reuters, the LDP has maintained a majority in the House of Representatives since 2012, bolstered by an alliance with the Komeito Party that has helped them retain control in the Upper House. However, recent political donation scandals and a rising cost of living in Japan have left the LDP vulnerable as it approaches this election.
A recent Asahi Shimbun poll conducted on the 21st indicates that the LDP could lose up to 50 of its 247 seats in this election while Komeito may drop to fewer than 30 seats, meaning the alliance could fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority.
While the LDP is still expected to remain the largest party in the Diet, a significant number of votes could shift to the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which Asahi Shimbun estimates could secure around 140 seats.
Should the ruling coalition lose its majority, the LDP would have to seek alliances with other parties, complicating Ishiba’s policy-making ability. Another option for Ishiba could be to reinstate members expelled from the party due to scandals, who are running as independents in districts without LDP nominees. Many of these candidates are anticipated to win, and their reinstatement could ensure a single-party majority for the LDP, although it would be a risky move. As the Asahi Shimbun points out, the political donation scandal is foremost in voters’ minds; notably, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was not implicated in the scandal, resigned last month.
Ishiba might also consider introducing a third coalition partner, such as the Japan Innovation Party, which holds 44 seats.
Previously, Ishiba established a “victory threshold,” stating the ruling coalition must secure a majority of seats. Failure to meet this mark could lead to pressure from right-wing factions within the party for his resignation. One LDP member mentioned, “There is a consensus that if the ruling coalition loses its majority, the Prime Minister is unlikely to stay in office.”
Ishiba had hoped that calling for an early election would strengthen his administration, but his approval ratings have steadily declined since he took office in October. A recent NHK poll released on the 21st shows his cabinet’s support dropping from 44% to 41% over just a week.
This election marks the first House of Representatives vote since the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, prompting authorities to ramp up security measures. Police have implemented extensive safety protocols, including placing bulletproof blankets behind candidates and erecting barriers to keep vehicles and pedestrians at least 20 meters away. On Saturday, both Ishiba and Constitutional Democratic Party leader Kenta Izumi campaigned in Tokyo, with police deploying large contingents for crowd control.
