As Hurricane Milton barrels towards Florida, fueled by record-high temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, a new analysis uncovers a concerning link between human-induced climate change and severe storms. Recent data reveals that the elevated heat in the Gulf, which played a significant role in intensifying Hurricane Helene last month, is 200 to 500 times more likely due to human activities contributing to global warming.
Hurricane Helene, one of the most catastrophic storms in U.S. history, intensified over the Gulf, making landfall with winds reaching 140 mph. Analysts indicate that climate change has led to a 10% increase in rainfall during the hurricane, which tragically resulted in over 220 fatalities across six states and caused widespread destruction, leveling towns, damaging roadways, and disrupting water supplies. Furthermore, Helene’s wind speeds were exacerbated by roughly 13 mph, or 11%, as a direct consequence of climate change.
A multinational team of scientists from the World Weather Attribution group explains that the burning of fossil fuels has made storms like Helene about 2.5 times more likely than they were during the pre-industrial era. The study forecasts that if global temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels—likely without significant emission reductions—storms of Helene’s scale could experience an additional 10% increase in rainfall.
Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central and a member of the attribution group, likens the heat added by human activity to “steroids for hurricanes,” emphasizing how excess warmth is transforming storms such as Helene and Milton into “explosive” events.
Recent findings from Climate Central reveal that sea surface temperatures along Milton’s path have become 400 to 800 times more likely due to climate change. Placky warns that if human-induced warming continues, we could see an increase in powerful storms, leading to even greater devastation.
As Hurricane Milton rapidly escalates from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm, with winds reaching 180 mph in just nine hours, scientists are drawing attention to the unusually warm waters of the Gulf. Near Tampa, temperatures are around 2° to 3°C above normal, creating ideal conditions for hurricane intensification.
Climate scientist Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami highlights that the Gulf’s persistent high temperatures elevate the chances of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. He expresses concern among experts about a storm exploiting such conditions, comparing the situation to “a powder keg waiting for a spark”—with Milton poised to be that spark.
The scientific community underscores that a warmer atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water vapor for each degree of warming. With a global temperature increase of at least 1.3°C since the pre-industrial era, there are fears this trend could accelerate. Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for the Nature Conservancy and a Texas Tech University professor, emphasizes that only 1% of the excess heat from climate change is reflected in recorded global temperatures, while 89% is absorbed by the oceans, contributing to rising sea levels, marine heatwaves, and increasingly severe hurricanes.
With a month remaining until a U.S. presidential election where climate change has barely been addressed, Hurricane Milton and the recent devastation caused by Helene serve as stark reminders of the widespread effects of a warming planet. Former President Donald Trump, who notoriously dismissed climate change as a “hoax,” canceled a campaign event in Miami due to the impending threat from Milton. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, while acknowledging the dangers of climate change, has largely steered clear of deep discussions on the issue during her campaign.
North Carolina’s state climatologist, Kathie Dello, observes that the reality of climate change has become undeniable for many: “People are realizing we are seeing things we’ve never seen before, and we are vulnerable to climate change—it’s a crisis we’re not adequately prepared for.”
Even though climate change rarely ranks as a top concern in elections, its repercussions—such as hurricanes—affect the economy, disrupt education, and leave many struggling for basic necessities. Dello noted, “Climate is all tied to that.”
According to the United Nations, the solution is clear: we must stop burning fossil fuels. “Our future is in our hands,” asserts Hayhoe, summarizing the urgent call for action.
