The journey to the White House is determined by electoral college votes, not popular votes, with each state contributing to the final tally. This year’s races are incredibly close.
As of October 26, 2024, the intense competition in battleground states, particularly in Pennsylvania, has become a focal point. Over the past few weeks, residents have been inundated with a staggering $280 million in election advertisements, part of a grand total of $2.1 billion spent on the U.S. presidential election campaign thus far.
Pennsylvania stands out as one of seven crucial battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that will ultimately decide the outcome of the November 5 election. Forget about reliably blue California or red Texas; it’s these states that are akin to the wonders of the political world, and their electoral votes are vital in determining who occupies the Oval Office. Collectively, these seven states account for 93 electoral college votes, with Pennsylvania holding the highest number at 19. It’s no wonder its residents are facing an avalanche of ads.
In these closing days of the campaign, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, along with their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz, are racing to secure the pivotal 270 electoral votes needed for victory. The unpredictability of these battlegrounds is reaching new heights, with polling showing five of them virtually tied within a three-point margin of error. Only Arizona, where Trump holds a four-point lead, and Wisconsin, where Harris leads by five, seem to offer any clear advantages at this stage. According to Nate Cohn, a polling expert with the New York Times, the presidential polls are “starting to run out of room to get any closer.”
In light of this, reporters from The Guardian are on the ground in each of these battlegrounds, seeking to navigate the complexities of the electoral situation.
**Arizona: Why Isn’t Trump Performing Better?**
On a sweltering afternoon in Phoenix, Lynn and Roger Seeley found themselves at a Democratic campaign event listening to U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego. As lifelong Republicans, they felt out of place but recognized that the Arizona GOP no longer represents their values. Lynn Seeley expressed her support for Kamala Harris, stating, “The Arizona Republican party is not the same Republican party.”
The Seelys are among a group known as “McCain Republicans,” disillusioned moderates who prefer the late Senator John McCain’s maverick style over Trump’s MAGA movement. Rapid population growth and a surge of young Latino voters have shifted the political landscape in Arizona, transforming it from a strong Republican state into a competitive battleground.
While polls have Trump with a slight edge over Harris in the presidential race, the Senate race appears to favor Gallego. Voter turnout trends show that around a third of Arizonans are unaffiliated, with many leaning Democratic in recent statewide races.
Political science professor Samara Klar raised an interesting point: “Arizona is not a blue state. A Republican candidate should be cleaning up in Arizona. So the question is: why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?”
**Georgia: Early Voting Sets Records, But Offers Few Clues**
In Georgia, early voting has been historic, with more than 2 million voters having already cast ballots—one-fourth of the electorate. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump see Georgia as crucial to their campaigns. After Biden’s narrow victory in 2020, the state has become a focal point, showcasing changes in its demographics and political dynamics.
Justin Thompson, a retired air force engineer, stated, “It’s not a popularity contest. It’s what you got done. And he did get things done before the pandemic hit.” However, tensions run high, as some residents express frustration over political divisions.
**Michigan: Turnout Is Crucial Amid Anger Over Gaza**
In Michigan, voters are navigating complex sentiments surrounding the Gaza conflict. Many feel torn between supporting Trump and disillusionment with Harris. The state, historically a Democratic stronghold, is emphasizing turnout, especially among Black voters in Detroit, critical to Democratic success. Harris’s performance among these voters will be paramount if she hopes to secure Michigan, where she has significantly outspent Trump.
**Nevada: Who’s Better for the Working Class?**
In Nevada, economic concerns dominate the discourse. Urbin Gonzalez, a porter on the Las Vegas Strip, expressed frustration over the pace of recovery for workers like him, stating, “All Trump wants to do is cut taxes for his buddies, not for us.” Despite leaning Democratic in recent elections, turnout and economic sentiments complicate predictions in this pivotal state.
**North Carolina: A Hurricane Could Change the Game**
In North Carolina, Hurricane Helene has raised concerns for turnout among Trump’s core base in rural regions. The state has historically leaned Republican, but heightened campaigning from Harris is making the race competitive. Trump’s focus is on mobilizing his white rural voters, while Harris aims to galvanize women and African American voters in urban areas.
**Pennsylvania: The Keystone State’s Significance**
In Pennsylvania, both Harris and Trump have made numerous campaign appearances, emphasizing its vital role in the election. Trump views it as a must-win state, stating, “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing.” The significance of rural white voters and their shifting allegiances could sway the election.
**Wisconsin: Battleground Tensions**
In Wisconsin, voters are anxious over the tight race. The state, known for its pivotal role in past elections, is seeing intense competition for turnout, particularly among young voters. Strategies from both parties focus on energizing and mobilizing their bases.
As each of these battleground states grapples with their unique dynamics, the outcome remains uncertain, but the stakes are undeniably high.
