A recent survey conducted by the Bay Area News Group and Silicon Valley Joint Venture found that nearly 47% of Bay Area residents are considering leaving the region in the next few years. This figure marks a slight decline from the 52% of respondents who expressed a desire to move in 2023.
According to Mercury News, residents cited several reasons for wanting to leave, including quality of life (49%), taxes (37%), homelessness, and the political climate (both at 28%). However, the primary driver behind their plans to relocate is the overall lack of affordability, with 67% of those seriously contemplating leaving attributing their decision to high housing costs.
The survey, which took place in August, included 1,773 adults across five counties in the Bay Area, with a margin of error of 2.5%.
One resident, Michelle Hailey, who grew up in the area and has never considered leaving until now, expressed her changing perspective. The 60-year-old property manager from Oakland has been grappling with rising costs and frequently encounters homeless camps in her daily commute.
“I sometimes dream about a truck coming to take me away from here,” Hailey lamented. “It’s absurd how we’ve allowed our city to deteriorate this way.”
Tim Thomas, director of the Urban Migration Program at UC Berkeley, commented on the situation, noting that while the Bay Area boasts economic prosperity, the benefits have been enjoyed by only a select few. Over the past decade, the tech industry has created thousands of jobs, yet the demand for new housing has far exceeded supply, resulting in skyrocketing home prices. Those who cannot afford to stay will inevitably move on.
Research indicates that those leaving the Bay Area are often Hispanic or Black, while incoming residents tend to be wealthier and more educated. Thomas aptly described the situation: “The goal here seems to be the economic re-creation of segregation.”
Jacqueline Martinez, one of the survey respondents feeling disadvantaged by rising housing costs, immigrated from Guatemala in 2017 and found shelter with a friend in South San Francisco. As a mother of two, ages 9 and 15, she shared her struggles, stating, “We live like sardines. It feels impossible to buy a home, let alone provide a decent space for my kids.”
To make ends meet, Martinez juggles three part-time jobs as a chef, beauty therapist, and phlebotomist. She has recently considered moving to Nevada, where she envisions providing her children with more space and reducing her work hours.
“I feel so overwhelmed and unable to fulfill my responsibilities as a mom,” Martinez reflected, expressing her fatigue with the relentless demands of her life.
Respondents like Martinez, who are renters, are significantly more likely to express a desire to leave the Bay Area. In the Bay Area News Group’s survey, 53% of tenants indicated they wish to relocate, compared to only 37% of homeowners.
Even some homeowners share the sentiment that life could be better elsewhere. Megan Prasad, 31, and her husband, who left San Francisco last year to purchase a condo in Hayward, feel the urge to move again. With their first child due in November, they are considering relocating closer to Prasad’s family in Washington State or finding a more “family-friendly” spot on the East Coast.
Experts describe Prasad as part of the Bay Area’s “temporary class,” a term coined by demographer Issi Romem to characterize individuals who move to high-opportunity areas to launch their careers but leave when they seek to start families in their 30s.
As the number of renters in the Bay Area continues to rise, Romem noted this trend is becoming more pronounced, complicating many people’s pursuit of the stability they desire as they age.
